ASU-Stanford Game Preview & Breakdown

As we get ready for the Pac-10 opener against Stanford on Saturday, let's break down the match-ups and preview the other conference games this weekend.

-- Quarterbacks -- Devils
The edge here is way in favor of the Sun Devils. QB Rudy Carpenter was the model of efficiency last week, completing 22-28 passes for 388 yards, the most yards by a Sun Devil quarterback in a season opener ever. Carpenter also tied a school record for most consecutive completions with 13 straight succesful passes. Stanford's QB, Travita Pritchard, won a three-way battle for the spot in the preseason and didn't have impressive passing numbers in his opening game against the Beavers. He didn't make a crucial mistake in the close game however, expect that to change against the ASU defense.

-- Running Backs -- Stanford
Stanford running back Toby Gerhart, who has a brother on the ASU team, rumbled for 147 yards and 2 touchdowns in the Cardinal's win. Gerhart missed most of last year with an injury, but returned to form and is a very powerful runner who can be difficult to tackle. The Sun Devils running game struggled a bit in their opener against the 'Jacks, as QB Carpenter led all rushers with 40 yards on QB scrambles. Expect a boost to the running game this week however, as Herring and DeWitty return to the rotation. Also, NAU ran an unique defense that made running the ball extremely difficult. Just because of these few question marks last game, all of which have a reasonable answer however, I give a slight edge to the Cardinal run game.

-- Wide Receivers -- Devils
The Sun Devils will be winning this battle nearly every game this year. A talented receiving corps will look to create havoc for defenses and help Carpenter put up some big numbers in his senior season. The group is led by Mike Jones, who is nursing a strained achilles but should play come Saturday. Jones had six catches for 162 yards last week and had a bad-luck fumble as he reached for the endzone on one long reception. Look for Taylor and Robinson to see a lot of passes thrown their way in this game too, especially if the Cardinal key against the Devils run game. And of course, Chris McGaha should see his fair share of Carpenter's throws.

-- OL vs. DL -- Draw
The Sun Devils have the stronger defensive line, with defensive ends Dexter Davis and Luis Vasquez leading the attack. Both are relentless in their pass rush and should create problems for Pritchard all game long. Davis recorded two sacks last weekend against NAU. Also watch for DT David Smith for the Devils, a somewhat undersized DT, he makes up for it with speed and savvy.
The Cardinal get the slight advantage of the offensive lines. Stanford's front line isn't overwhelming and will struggle with the Devils defensive front, but until the ASU line proves itself against a formidable opponent the edge goes to the visitor's offensive line.

-- Linebackers -- Stanford
Most likely the best group on the Stanford defense, their linebackers will use plenty of blitzes to try and test the ASU O-Line and force Carpenter to make rush decisions. For the Devils, Mike Nixon leads the linebacking corps, a somewhat underrated (myself included in underrating them) group on the strong Sun Devil defense.

-- Defensive Backs -- ASU
ASU's Troy Nolan, Rodney Cox, and Terell Carr will make Pritchard think twice before going downfield with a pass. These DBs are much improved over the Beavers secondary the Cardinal faced last year and I'm predicting come away with at least an interception from Pritchard.

-- Special Teams -- ASU
ASU's All-Everything Utility Man, Thomas Weber, handles every facet of the kicking game for the Devils. The Groza Award winner connected on all three field goals last week and averaged 43 yards per punt, with two punts inside the twenty. On kick-offs he averaged 67 yards and had three touchbacks in seven attempts. The Cardinal K, Aaron Zagory, made two of three field goals last week. He hit from 41 and 42 yards out and missed a 49 yard attempt. Their punter averaged 45 yards per punt, with one inside the twenty.
The Devils line up two big play returners on kick-offs in Kyle Williams and Chris McGaha. Williams will also handle most punt return duties. Watch for Williams to take one back to the promised land this weekend.

-- The 'X' Factor -- ASU
This is one of the few legit upset games this weekend in college football. Stanford is much improved and has lost two straight to the Devils by ridiculously lopsided scores. The Cardinal will go on to upset quite a few teams this year in the Pac-10 as they keep improving under Harbough, but with all that being said with the Cardinal already having knocked off Oregon State in Week 1 the Devils won't be overlooking them in Week 2. Add that with the 100+ temperature, 9,400 students, and 68,000 fans in the House of Heat and we have a Sun Devil victory. ASU must not overlook or underestimate this team though, as they are no longer the Pac-10 cellar-dwellers.


Other Pac-10 games this week include Arizona against Toledo, California travelling to Washington State, #18 Oregon hosting Utah State and former ASU assistant Brent Guy, Oregon State going to Happy Valley to face #19 Penn State and JoePa, and the 15th ranked Stormin' Mormons heading to the Pacific Northwest to take on Washington.

ESPN Pre-Season Previews & More

-- ESPN Gameday analyst Kirk Herbstreit has published his annual Herbie Awards, his choices for the top players, coaches, teams, and fans in college football this season. It's well documented that Herbstreit doesn't like the Sun Devils, I'd be surprised if he picked us to win against NAU this weekend, but it now appears that Herbstreit has fallen victim of the UA Kool-aid. The evidence:
-- # 6 Best WR -- Mike Thomas, Arizona. Although talented, Thomas is definately not a top six WR. Enough said here.
-- # 2 Best TE -- Rob Gronkowski, Arizona. Gronkowski belongs on the list, perhaps not at #2, but close enough.
-- # 5 Best Old School QB -- Willie "My Head Hurts" Tuitama. Uhhh...huh? Tuitama is not even a top QB in the Pac. I'd rank him probably third or fourth, maybe if I wasn't feeling too well second. Where's the love for Rudy, Kirk? Almost the consensus pick for top QB in the conference, Rudy Carpenter gets looked over by Herbstreit and his Kitty lovin' rankings.
-- # 1 Going Bowling for First Time in A While -- Arizona. One of the ten worst schedules in the nation will get you to a bowl. It's amazing that the UofA hasn't been to a bowl game in 10+ years in an age where all you have to do is go .500.
-- # 3 Movin' On Up -- Arizona. Not a whole lot of places to go but up for them, but ahead of teams like Miami and Ole Miss? I think not.
-- # 4 Coach Who Will Exceed Expectations -- Mike Stoops. There ARE no expectations. I'm not sure a coach on the hotseat can really exeed expectations anyways.
-- Pac-10 Champion Sleeper -- Arizona. I'll wait for you to also nudge your jaw back into place. This one takes the cake my friends. USC is obviously the consensus favorite, but then to call UofA the sleeper? Maybe he misunderstood, after all the UofA has been asleep when it comes to football championships (last winning a title in 1993, it being a co-championship at that, and NEVER representing the Pac-10 in the Rose Bowl, the only school in the Big Ten or Pac Ten not to ever go).

Well those are his UofA picks, now for his ASU ones...
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Well those are his ASU picks.

Notable snubs for the Devils would be Rudy Carpenter for Best Old School QB, Kyle Williams for Best Returner, Keegan Herring in the Best Veteran Running Backs, Our D-Line for Sack Masters or Run Stuffers, and Omar Bolden for CB, those to just name a few.


-- ESPN's Games to Watch
Sept. 20: Georgia at Arizona State (8 p.m., ABC)
The Bulldogs make a rare trip west of the Mississippi River -- they haven't played beyond Baton Rouge, La., since 1967. The Sun Devils won 10 games in coach Dennis Erickson's first season, but they'll have to do a better job protecting quarterback Rudy Carpenter against Georgia's defense.

Oct. 11: Arizona State at USC (TBA)
The Sun Devils were no match for the Trojans in 2007, losing 44-24. Arizona State might be USC's best competition in the Pac-10 this season.
And the Week 15 Upset Alert: Arizona over Arizona State.


-- ESPN's Most Intriguing Games of the Season
Dec. 6: Arizona State at Arizona (8 p.m. ET)
After being outrecruited by the Sun Devils, Wildcats coach Mike Stoops suggested Arizona State was turning into a junior college. If Arizona keeps playing football like a JC, Stoops will be looking for a job in 2009.


-- Regarding Sun Devil injuries, Coach Erickson said that WR Chris McGaha is expected to start against NAU this weekend after missing some practice for an injury. On other injuries, Coach Erickson stated that the Devils should have most of their players available, RB Shaun DeWitty is still a question mark however.


-- Looks like Keegan Herring and Dimitri Nance will see the majority of the playing time at running back. Jarrell Woods could see action in the short yardage situations because of his size. Coach Erickson has said that true freshman Ryan Bass will also see some action in the NAU game.


-- The Sun Devils will see about eight or nine true freshmen play this season. On defense: Josh Jordan, Clint Floyd, Shelly Lyons, Brandon Magee, and Lawrence Guy. Offensively look for Zach Schlink, Ryan Bass, and Gerell Robinson.


-- No News is Not Good News in regards to Oregon's projected starting quarterback Nate Costa. You figured with all of the sealed lips around Oregon's fall practices over the weekend that the injury to Costa was more than a mere stinger and according to reports that were published Monday, the Ducks QB will be out a minimum 8-10 weeks after reinjuring his surgically repaired knee five days ago. Justin Roper will start the season opener against Washington on Saturday at Autzen Stadium. Back-up QBs will be Jeremiah Masoli, a transfer from City College of San Francisco (JUCO National Champion) and true freshman Chris Harper. Roper filled in for Dennis Dixon last season after Dixon was lost due to an injury suffered during the Arizona State game. Roper led the Ducks to a 56-21 Sun Bowl win over South Florida.

Updated Pac-10 Predictions

Well after looking over the schedules and re-doing my math a hundred times at least, I am now ready to back up my rankings of the Pac-10 teams. Shockingly, there are some changes! The reason I was somewhat nervous about my initial rankings was mainly because I had Arizona ranked fourth, when in my heart and gut I have them finishing lower than that. But here's a schedule breakdown with my picks. Again, I'm terrible with decision making, so picking each game has been quite a chore.

1) USC -- 11-1 Overall; 9-0 Pac-10
Wins -- @ Virginia, @ Oregon St, Oregon, ASU, @ Wazzu, @ Arizona, Washington, Cal, @ Stanford, Notre Dame, @ UCLA
Losses -- Ohio State

2) Arizona State -- 10-2; 8-1
Wins -- NAU, Stanford, UNLV, @ Cal, Oregon, @ Oregon St, @ Washington, Wazzu, UCLA, @ Arizona
Losses -- Georgia, @ USC

3) California -- 8-4; 5-4
Wins -- Michigan St, @ Wazzu, @ Maryland, Colo St, UCLA, Oregon, Stanford, Washington
Losses -- ASU, @ Arizona, @ USC, @ Oregon State

4) Oregon -- 8-4; 5-4
Wins -- Washington, Utah St, @ Purdue, Boise St, @ Wazzu, UCLA, Stanford, Arizona
Losses -- @ USC, @ ASU, @ Cal, @ Oregon State

5) Arizona -- 6-6; 4-5
Wins -- Idaho, Toledo, @ UCLA, Washington, Cal, Oregon State
Losses -- @ NM, @ Stanford, USC, @ Wazzu, @ Oregon, ASU

6) UCLA -- 4-8; 4-5
Wins -- Wazzu, Stanford, Oregon State, @ Washington
Losses -- Tennessee, @ BYU, Arizona, Fresno State, @ Oregon, @ Cal, @ ASU, USC

7) Oregon State -- 5-7; 4-5
Wins -- @ Stanford, Hawaii, Wazzu, Cal, Oregon
Losses -- @ Penn St, USC, @ Utah, @ Wazzu, ASU, @ UCLA, @ Arizona

8) Washington -- 4-8; 3-6
Wins -- Stanford, Oregon St, Notre Dame, @ Wazzu
Losses -- @ Oregon, BYU, Oklahoma, @ Arizona, @ USC, ASU, UCLA, @ Cal

9) Stanford -- 3-9; 2-7
Wins -- San Jose St, Arizona, Washington State
Losses -- Oregon St, @ ASU, @ TCU, @ Washington, @ Notre Dame, @ UCLA, @ Oregon, USC, @ Cal

10) Washington State -- 4-8; 1-8
Wins -- @ Baylor, Portland State, Arizona, @ Hawaii
Losses -- Oklahoma St, Cal, Oregon, @ UCLA, @ Oregon St, USC, @ Stanford, @ ASU, Washington

So looking at this breakdown, the teams that jump out at me as being out of place are: UCLA at sixth and Oregon State at seventh. I feel that the Beavers could a decent season and finish bowl eligible (six wins) and that UCLA will have a problem finishing 4-5 in the Pac. Also, I could see Stanford winning more than two games in the conference this season and Oregon finishing ahead of Cal for third place.

Pac-10 Picks

Well here are my preliminary rankings of the Pac-10 teams. I'm sure it will change multiple times between now and the season opener, as it's already changed multiple times between my initial ranking and posting it. Teams 4-7 could finish in any order and the same goes for teams 8-10. But here goes nothing:

1. USC
2. Arizona St
3. Oregon
4. Arizona
5. California
6. Oregon State
7. UCLA
8. Washington
9. Stanford
10. Washington St

I'll break down why I have them picked in this order later and will also include my Top Pac-10 Games of the Year. I'll also probably be re-arranging the order :P

2007 Outlook

The off-season that never seems to end is finally coming to its conclusion as we are now less than a week away till the start of another ASU football season and this year the start of yet another Sun Devil Era, this time under the direction of two-time national champion coach Dennis Erickson. Coach Koetter was shown the door by the administration after his teams seemed to always underachieve, never living up to expectations, and couldn't win a game in California. Koetter's teams did have a nice winning record against the university in the south, went bowling more often than not, and had the Devils' football program ranked in the top 40 for the past three years overall, but in the end it wasn't enough to save his job and off he goes to the NFL to be the Jaguars offensive coordinator. Coach Erickson brings a lot to the table, besides his two national championship rings, and instantly renewed fan and player interest in the program.

SCHEDULE:

The Devils' schedule is set-up for success this year (which is most likely part of the reason why Coach Koetter was let go prior to the '07 season). With 8 home games and only 4 away games the Sun Devils will have the home field advantage working almost every night, including the first 4 at home, and at least 7 of them at night. The 2007 season and the Erickson campaign open up against the San Jose State Spartans, led by former Arizona head coach Dick Tomey. The Spartans are ranked in a handful of Top-25 polls to begin the season and are certainly not a piece of pie. They finished 9-4 in 2006, won a bowl game, and more importantly return almost all of their star players...oh and Tomey knows what he is getting into at ASU. After the opener the Devils face Colorado & San Diego State, both of whom shouldn't pose to much of a challenge, and then open up Pac-10 play against Erickson's former team the Oregon State Beavers. After spending almost the entire month of September at home the Devils will take to the road to battle two sub-par Pac-10 teams, Stanford and Washington State. The Stanford game should break ASU's winless streak in the state of California as Valley Christian could most likely give the Cardinal a good game. Playing in the wasteland of Pullman at Washington State is always a tough draw but the Devils get a break this year as they play them in the first week of October when weather shouldn't factor in. ASU comes home for a two-game stand against Washington and then after a week off, California. The Huskies will be improved from last year but won't stack up to ASU playing at home on Family Weekend and the Bears on Homecoming will prove to be a tough test as they are priming themselves for a BCS run this season. ASU then heads on the road for a crucial two game trip to Oregon and UCLA and could do so with a 8-0, 7-1, or at least a 6-2 record. Oregon will also be looking at making their own kind of noise in the race for the Pac-10 championship when these two teams meet at the Autzen Zoo, most likely the loudest stadium in the country. Following the tough test in Eugene the Devils head south to Pasadena to play at the Rose Bowl against UCLA, a team who similar to Oregon, could finish anywhere from second to sixth in the Pac-10, as they have the potential and are returning a strong team but seem to lose a couple of games they shouldn't and finish the season in the middle of the Pac. The Devils take a week off and return to the House of Heat to face the other team from LA, the USC Trojans, in an unprecendanted Thanksgiving Day game on ESPN in front of a sold-out stadium. ASU has put themselves in positions the last two years to knock off the top ranked Trojans but failed to do so, last year at USC and at home in 2005 as they played host to ESPN Gameday. The Devils will then close off the regular season with the traditional game against in-state rival Arizona in what will be the latest date the Wildcats have played a game on since the 1998 season.

OFFENSE:

ASU's offense should offer a very balanced attack between the steller running back corps and the very talented and young wide receivers. Carpenter leads the quarterbacks as a Junior and looks to regain his Freshman form after his struggle with a nagging injury and the pressure hanging over him from the quarterback controversy are gone. Ryan Torain, a power back with speed, leads the extremely deep running backs after rattling off a 1200+ yard junior season. Keegan Herring will provide a change of pace in the back field as an extremely quick back who rushed for 550 yards and 5 touchdowns in 2006, setting ASU freshmen rushing records. Also in the backfield for the Devils are halfbacks Shaun DeWitty, Dimitri Nance, & Preston Jones. The receiving corps last year had a tough time replacing NFL starter Derek Hagan as the majority of the passes went towards the TE Zach Miller, who now also will be playing on Sundays. Besides Miller the Devils don't really lose anyone from their receiving corps who did any damage last year which should set up nicely for the emergence of some new Sun Devil star wideouts. Michael Jones, Rudy Burgess, Chris McGaha, Nate Kimbrough, and Brent Miller should all have much improved seasons as they have another year under their belts and looked sharp in fall practices. The Sun Devils' wide receiver of the future in my opinion is Kyle Williams. Watch for him to be a huge playmaker on Offense and on Special Teams. The Offensive Line returns all 5 starters this year and is the only team in the conference to do so which should make the job easier for Carpenter and his running backs. With Erickson's plan of spreading out the defense using a balanced attack of both the run and the pass, vertically and horizontally, the Sun Devils should put up some pretty impressive offensive numbers yet again.

DEFENSE:

The Sun Devils defense should be along the same lines as any other season, talented but not quite on that top level and therefore the offense will most likely need to bail out the defense in a couple of games. The defense has shown quite a bit of improvement already and will move a lot quicker to the ball and play with a tough physical attitude that will hopefully make up for any edge the opposing offenses may have on them. The DL is very thin but should continue to improve from last season with the addition of some new talent. The linebacking corps should be a strength of the Sun Devils defense as they return a handful of stud players who now have more experience after being thrown into the fire as freshmen and first year players last season. They also add a very highly touted junior college transfer in Morris Wooten. In the secondary more questions abound. ASU lacks a proven shut-down cornerback but brings in another highly touted recruit, Omar Bolden, who could make quite the impact right off the bat. At the safety position Josh Barrett is a stud who should contend for All-Pac and make receivers think twice about catching a ball when he is in the vicinity.

SPECIAL TEAMS:

With the kickoff moving back to the 30 yard line under the new rule change fans should be seeing more kick returns for touchdowns this year and I'm predicting Kyle Williams will run for at least two of them. ASU is loaded with options for quality kick and punt returners and should give the offense good field position and even some points. ASU has to replace graduated place kicker Jesse Ainsworth who was almost automatic on field goals and could boot the ball to the endzone on kickoffs. Recently named the starter after an impressive battle at camp and fall practices is Thomas Weber. Weber should be able to handle the kicking duties as he has a strong and accurate leg but if he falters the Devils have a capable replacement waiting on the sidelines. Punting won't be a problem as Jonathan Johnson was among the Pac-10's best last year and returns again this year. His strong leg should prove to be quite the advantage for the Devils when the offense gets stopped.